Graeme Skinner, independent potato agronomist and director of Provenance Potatoes, said it had been one of the most difficult seasons he could remember
Potato growers are starting to lift a crop that has weathered difficult conditions and is being sold into an uncertain market.
Most potatoes were planted in very good conditions as the wet winter gave way to a drier spring just in time. But it was one of the coldest April's on record, followed by a very wet May and then a mixed summer with some heat but plenty of rain.
Difficulties
Kent-based Graeme Skinner, independent potato agronomist and director of Provenance Potatoes, said it had been one of the most difficult seasons he could remember, with one of the biggest issues the lack of sunshine this summer.
"The first two weeks of June were hot and sunny and then the rain fell and we have a lot less sunshine than normal ever since," he said.
"In some places we are seeing yields 10-15 tonnes/hectare behind where they should be."
With growers now burning off crops, yields are locked. Meanwhile quality is reasonable, although growers have had to apply regular blight sprays to prevent disease spread and wireworm was also a problem, added Mr Skinner.
He also said that making sense of this year's variable conditions has been made more difficult by inaccurate weather information.
The situation has been less difficult in Lincolnshire, according to agronomist Simon Faulkner, of SDF Agriculture, but there have been and remain challenges to complete the growing season along with a lot of potato crop variability.
"Some yields appear to have potential when you do a trial dig and in other place yields almost seem to be going backwards," he said.
"In many places the soil moisture deficits [SMD] are rising and we are seeing increases in dry matter. Some growers have held off irrigating a few weeks ago expecting more rain than actually fell and where rain has not materialised, those crops would have benefited from water to bulk them up."
He also reported a lack of sunshine, with shortening days and natural senescence limiting the potential for late-season growth particularly in the second early varieties.
Crop size uncertainty
Judging the size of the British crop is difficult this year because of the demise of the AHDB's potato services and crop estimates.
Last year the GB potato area was 117,470 hectares, while an average yield of 45.1 tonnes/ha delivered a 5.3 million tonne crop. Uncertainty caused by the pandemic and high prices of alternative crops have probably reduced the potato area by 5 per cent to 111,600ha, the second smallest area ever.
If the average yield reaches the five-year average of 45.2t/ha, then a British crop of 5.04mt would be lifted this year. However, it would only take a 1 per cent drop in average yields for a sub-5mt crop to be produced for only the fifth time on record.
In previous years when there has been a sub-5mt crop free-buy prices have risen significantly. In the season following the rain-affected 2012 crop free-buy prices rose to more than 拢350/t and edged above 拢270/t in 2018 following the summer drought. Even this early in the season the best Maris Piper are only making 拢220/t, according to Peter Cooper, of market information service Potato Call.
The early part of the pandemic saw fresh retail potato sales jump by almost 10 per cent but those gains have tailed off as restrictions have eased. 鈥楽taycationing' has led to greater sales of bagged chipping potatoes this summer, partly making up for the virtual halting of such trade in March 2020.
The reopening of restaurants has increased the demand for imported frozen chips and fries. With growers on the continent cutting back plantings in response to Covid-19 uncertainty and experiencing the same variable conditions, it could create a demand for UK potatoes.
