With lamb prices at record levels for the time of year, the upcoming religious festivals of Ramadan and Easter should give the market continued support, but there is the prospect of more supply later in the year.
This year, Ramadan begins on February 28 and continues until March 30. During that time daily fasts will be broken at sunset and sheep meat will be on many menus. The month ends with Eid al-Fitr, which also includes feasting.
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"Five days before Ramadan begins, my family and many others buy a whole lamb and then stock up during the middle of the month and again a few days before Eid," said Awal Fuseini, senior halal sector manager at AHDB.
Lamb sales
"Our research shows that British Muslims account for 30% of lamb sales by volume, with those sales at their strongest during Ramadan and the Eid al-Adha festival in June."
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Although there are no figures, demand for poultry from the Muslim community was also increasing. Mr Fuseini added disposable income to spend on lamb among Muslims can be higher than others, partly because of restrictions on other food and alcohol.
He said assurance was very important for farmers supplying the halal market as were timings.
Ramadan will move back 11 days in 2026 beginning on February 17 and ending March 18. Meanwhile, lambs eaten during the June Eid-al-Adha festival must be at least six months old, which means that many spring born lambs are not suitable.
Three weeks after the end of Ramadan is Easter, which will give another boost to the lamb market.
Lamb sales in the two weeks before Easter Sunday are twice the average for the rest of the year, according to sales data from Kantar from the AHDB, with leg joints particularly popular.
Ramadan and Easter sales are key periods of the year for Jeremy Eaton, general manager of CCM auctions at Skipton, North Yorkshire.
Easter lamb
He said: "We are expecting very strong demand in the coming weeks with sales to the Muslim community very important.
"We will sell to Bradford, but often the sheep we sell are destined for Birmingham and beyond. This growing market has also provided a floor for the cull ewe market, which does not fluctuate like it used to."
Sheep Trend Chart
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He reported the general sheep market remains very strong with supplies low and some farmers finding they have too few store lambs for the keep they have.
Despite the buoyancy of the market, Mr Eaton is still disappointed about the lack of profitability in the sheep industry.
In its latest market outlook, the AHDB predicted sheep meat production in 2025 will be up 2% to 272,000 tonnes, which would still be the third smallest output on record after the foot and mouth year of 2001 and last year.
In the past, the UK has regularly produced more than 300,000 tonnes of sheep meat a year.
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The increase in supply will be the result of a larger carryover of lambs from 2024, rather than an increase in numbers.
In fact, contraction of the breeding flock is expected to result in a 2% drop in the 2025/26 lamb crop to 15.5 million head.
Breeding ewes
The June 2024 Defra census registered an 8.6% drop in the number of first-time breeding ewes and the AHDB expects another 2.5% drop in total female breeding sheep numbers in 2025.
Lamb had an excellent year for consumption in 2024, with the volume of sales up 6% according to Kantar stats for AHDB, which helped support producer prices.
An easing of inflation worries and promotions helped retail sales, while there was a 4% in dining out lamb sales and a massive 18% increase in takeaway lamb sales.
AHDB does not expect sales to remain at such strong levels, particularly if economic fears grow and it is predicting a 2% drop in consumer demand for lamb.
Export demand may increase by 1% to 84,000 tonnes in 2025 as European supplies come under more pressure, said AHDB, while imports may take a 13% hit, which would give support to the UK market.
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Mr Eaton said: "I think competition from alternative uses such as the Sustainable Farming Initiative, the threat of disease, including Schmallenberg in the south of the country, and the general air of uncertainty means that we are unlikely to see any significant increase in supply, which could continue to support prices."
Throughput of GB sheep in the first six weeks of 2025 was 197,039 head, according to the AHDB.
That was 11.1% down on the same period in 2024 and 18.6% lower than the first six weeks of 2023.
The average price in the week ending February 8 was 729 pence a kilogram deadweight, 10.1% more than the year before and 46.8% more than in the same week in 2023.
UK sheep meat production in January 2025 (includes deadweight and liveweight sales) was at 21,700 tonnes, according to Defra, which was 7.3% less than in January 2024 and 3.5% lower than January 2023.
