I wouldn't say I've ever been much of a gambler. I don't enjoy the risk. But then I think about how in agriculture we create a product reliant largely on British weather - the notoriously unpredictable British weather.
Weather
Modern forecasting can help for sure, but droughts, floods and bad weather will still come, and knowing what is coming in the next week is little comfort for plans created often a year in advance.
As farmers, we make guesses daily, albeit we try to make them educated ones. We decide when it's best to drill, when to cut silage, when to lamb, where to sell and when to buy.
Selling
For us on the island, big decisions loom - the lambs have been growing well and are getting to the stage where they could be marketed.
Many choices are to be made; do we take the whole lot and sell in one big lot, saving haulage and time? Or do we keep the ewe lambs and sell them later?
Do we decide to sell store through the ring or use an agent and settle on a price? Do we chip away at prime lambs slowly throughout the year and spread the risk?
These little decisions farmers make can have a big impact on overall profitability. Like stocks and shares, timing is everything.
A bad day at the mart is a sad thing to behold, with long faces and tight lips. Conversely, a good day at the mart with a big draw of lambs can set the farmer up for a great year, more profit and more investment.
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Bluetongue
And this year, there is the bluetongue question: to vaccinate or not to vaccinate? Vaccinate and it could be expensive and unnecessary, or don't vaccinate and risk the potential for a total disaster.
For me, it seems that being a profitable farmer isn't only about being a good farmer; it's often about weighing up the risks versus benefits, and sometimes that can boil down to gambling on a hunch.
So, maybe I'm a gambler after all.
